Ok ladies and gents, now it's time for my official UFC 82 predictions. If you're eager to impress your friends with your pre-cognitive abilities, then by all means, read on!
Main fight: Anderson Silva vs. Dan Henderson
This fight is something of a middleweight unification titlefight between UFC middleweight champ Anderson Silva and Pride welterweight(their welterweight is our middleweight...ask the metric system) champ Dan Henderson. This match is definitely a dream match for mma fans out there as, on paper, this match couldn't be any closer to call. My pick is going to have to be for Anderson Silva though. This pick is largely by virtue of the fact that there are far less what-ifs for winning the fight than with Henderson. Can Henderson land a right on the most technical striker of the division who also has a definitive reach advantage?(anythings possible) Can Henderson take Anderson to the ground and not succumb to the submission game(Anderson has a blackbelt from the Nogueira brothers who have both submitted Dan)? Will Dan not be sluggish(his history of Pride fights at this weightclass have been very inadequate)? Whereas the questions surrounding Silva revolve around his cardio(never fought 5 5-minute rounds) and his chin(which while looked good against Franklin, Dan punches much harder). In the end, due to Henderson's granite chin, it's a much better bet that it'll end by submission in fact...Anderson Silva by 3rd round submission.
Heath Herring vs. Cheick Kongo:
This should be a very tough match to predict since I've waffled on my pick 3 or 4 times. Cheick Kongo has incredibly impressive striking, but unfortunately not one punch ko power, but is a mess on the ground. Heath Herring is a veteran of the game who can't seem to beat A-level fighters but does well against B-level fighters. Heath Herring should win this fight with relative ease because his ground game is far better than Kongo's but he may feel emboldened by his new striking trainer Rob Kaman(!!!!). As much as Herring could learn from a trainer of that caliber, his striking won't be up to snuff against Kongo and odds are he'll be too bull-headed to take him down early and by the time he realizes he needs to do that, he'll already be too worn out to take down the Frenchman. Cheick Kongo by decision.
Alessio Sakara vs. Chris Leben:
This fight should be a very entertaining fight to watch...especially if you don't like Chris Leben. After dropping down the middleweight and now under the training eyes of American Top Team, Sakara should have no problem dispatching of Leben. While Leben is always a dangerous striker with serious knockout power, his gas tank was called into question in his last fight with Terry Martin. Expect a gassed Leben to get caught with a left cross in the second round. Alessio Sakara by 2nd round TKO.
Yushin Okami vs. Evan Tanner:
This match is about as evenly matched as it can get. The two fighters are virtually mirror images of each other, but with Tanner having the edge in striking and Okami with the edge in strength. Although, that advantage for Tanner won't help out since this fight is going to the mat early and often. Okami gets the edge in this fight because of his strength and wrestling skills and the fact that Tanner is coming off of a 2 year hiatus. The x-factor in this fight will be how good is Okami off of his back if he is taken down. Yushin Okami by decision.
Chris Wilson vs. Jon Fitch:
Y'know, if the UFC is getting ready to market Fitch as a possible title contender, then they need to put him up against people better than Chris Wilson. It's tough to swallow such a drastic drop in talent from Diego Sanchez to Chris Wilson, but I suppose most of the other welterweights are busy elsewhere...but I digress. Chris Wilson is a tough kid from Team Quest but Fitch is far too good and while it's a definite possibility that Fitch will be able to submit Wilson, I'm banking on good training to keep him out of danger with submissions, but not good enough for the win. Chris Wilson will hold his own, but not much else. Jon Fitch by decision.
Andrei Arlovski vs. Jake O'Brien:
This fight causes me considerable nightmares. Does the nightmare consist of Jake "The Irish Blanket" O'Brien laying on Arlovksi for 15 minutes? Or is it the prospect of Arlovski having his last fight in the UFC? A little bit of both. But sometimes I gather the gumption for optimism and will suspect that Arlovski will get the timing down on Jake O'Brien's takedown attempts and finish with right straight. Andrei Arlovski by 2nd round tko.
Luigi Fioravanti vs. Luke Cummo:
For the record, it's Cummo as in "Koomo" not...well...the other way around...the other way sounds like a porno mascot. Anyways, another very evenly matched fight with two very disciplined strikers coming from two highly-regarded camps. Whereas Luigi excels at the boxing aspect of striking, Luke excels at the kickboxing aspect and when comes to boxing vs. kickboxing fighters squaring off...I tend to side with the kickboxer. Bear in mind Luigi comes from American Top Team and I always have a rough time picking against them. Although, I must confess that a big reason I'm picking Luke is because of an unrequited man-crush. Is it the unibrow? Is it the fact that he drinks his own urine? Who knows? Luke Cummo by decision.
Josh Koscheck vs. Dustin Hazelett:
While I'd love to pull for the hometown kid, Hazelett's in a world of hurt against Koscheck. Hazelett's no slouch but he will not be able to defend Koschecks fantastic takedowns and does not have jiu-jitsu good enough to force Koscheck to make a mistake. Coupled with the fact that Koscheck was embarassed in his fight against Georges St. Pierre, expect Koscheck to take it out on Hazelett. Although, Koscheck's ground and pound isn't that good and he seems to have fallen in love with his overhand right-happy style of striking, I don't expect Koscheck to finish the fight. Koscheck by decision.
Diego Sanchez vs. David Bielkheden:
Bielkheden is a sexy choice for the gambler crowd out there(he's +400 against Diego) but while it may be a smart bet, it's still not the right choice. Training with Brazilian Top Team and having a very respectable submission game won't help much against Diego who tends to eat tentative ground fighters for breakfast. Also, I'm taking into account that Bielkheden lost a decision to Mitsuhiro Ishida who shares a very similar style with Diego's...if slightly less wild. Bielkheden's a tough guy though and he should be able to avoid being finished. Diego Sanchez by decision.
John Halverson vs. Jorge Gurgel:
It's just not a good night to be fighting in front your hometown crowd...again, for Jorge Gurgel. While he is a very capable fighter, he's far too tentative and will invariably be eaten alive by Halverson through aggressive wrestling and striking from the guard. The key to beating Jorge is aggression, and Halverson has that in spades. John Halverson by decision.
Now I know it looks like a lot of decisions and decisions don't always scream excitement, but by and large, the card should be very entertaining. You can expect me gloating or pointing out my horrific predictions come next week. And next week...why Gomi vs. Bang Ludwig has me all giddy.
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